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We saw a very strong start to the week with Bitcoin smashing through our $120,000 target and setting a new all time high above $123k on Thursday. We saw Ethereum get close to its all time high but both major cryptos pulled back going into the weekend on a stock market pullback as PPI (Inflation) numbers came out higher than expected. We also have started to see some other altcoins start to rally such as $LINK which is up over 17% on the week.

Opinion: We are still in a higher time frame bull run with the top crypto projects like $BTC and $ETH. This was once again what appears to just be a pullback/profit taking area after we see a very strong rally and for Bitcoin it makes even more sense after hitting yet another all time high.

Fear & Greed Index: 57 out of 100 (100 being maximum greed). This is actually a 2 point drop as we were at 59 last week. This is a perfect range to be in as it shows people are cautious but optimistic. Generally a top will come into play when euphoria is really high (a price in the 90s).

Last weeks newsletter had a prediction of us hitting $120,000 and we saw it goes as high as $123,000 setting a new all time high. Now it looks like it just had a pullback but and we most likely see a rally back to the $120,000 range/channel this week.

Every week we will be looking to find a setup that we fill confident will be higher by the end of the week. If the pick is showing strength it might be repeated if it flops we’ll look for a new one for the next week. If market conditions are bearish we might pivot to shorts or intentionally not pick anything.

$CRV - We are seeing a rising OBV, a Supertrend Level that has held support, and it looks like momentum wants to take it to $1.00 target.

Explanation: OBV is an on balance volume indicator that tracks volume flow. When you see a steady trend or rise it shows that there is more buying than selling and often means that the price will reflect that.

Supertrend is also a free indicator that gives Buy and Sell signals that while are a little delayed when they form support levels (green line) you are able to use that to your advantage to find areas to buy or look for bounces. If they flip to SELL when looking for a bounce you would then cut that trade.

Last week highlights

Added $COR - High of 55% currently up 15%

$BERRY, $GURU, and $PAPPLE still remain as holds waiting for $ETH all time high and to see money flow on chain.

Thoughts

The timing of $COR was better as we saw a nice rally with Ethereum that helped push it. The on chain microcaps are going to be much more volatile and are waiting for more confidence that $ETH is going to the higher price targets that people are starting to think are possible again.

$COR, $BERRY, $PAPPLE, and $GURU

$COR: A decentralized cloud for AI that anyone can use to run AI apps and contribute computing power to run them. Lots of developments built and added over the years and price is finally starting to represent that after breaking out of local resistance. A good project to follow as they are on test-net and have built out L2s and L3s with good utility with their token in terms of burns and usage.

CA: 0x8e0eef788350f40255d86dfe8d91ec0ad3a4547f

Starting Price: 0.0118 (5.9 million marketcap) Dextools Dexscreener

$BERRY: An AI token that’s built a strong and loyal community. Price overall is down significantly from an all time high giving it a much better opportunity. Momentum has returned and price just broke some local resistance today.
Starting Marketcap: $13 million. Dextools Link

$PAPPLE: A Dex token launched by the Proof team which has been one of their best performers. On a 47% dip from an all time high with what seems to be some bullish consolidation.
Starting Marketcap: 7.6 million. Dextools Link

$GURU: This is a token that’s held in 95% of their traded funds. Their platform reached 2 million in total value traded and momentum has been building in the chart and the attention it’s reached. Some traders are returning over 1,000% publicly with the ability for anyone to copy the same trades.
Starting Marketcap: $5.85 million. Dextools Link

We saw another S&P 500 all time high and momentum only seemed to stall after PPI inflation numbers came in hotter than expected. This might have some people who want the fed to cut rates more worried that now they won’t in September (before numbers the consensus seemed above 90% sure that we’d see a 25% rate cut)

Opinion: Market still is irrationally bullish but as long as it can stay in this limbo state it could still come out this week with another all time high. There are definitely about 10 large stocks that are really carrying the index and understandably a pullback or correction at some point would be logical. This makes me hesitant to chase the really frothy and overvalued stocks unless just swing trading and riding up hyp.e

Another all time high, the trend still continues up.

STATUS: BULLISH/HOLD

Relatively big week looking ahead as we have FOMC. This is where people will be looking to see if we are getting rate cuts in September. Current consensus is that they still suspect a 25bps rate cut BUT with PPI data coming in higher it could still go back to no rate cuts. This would make Wednesday a high volatile kind of day so would be cautious.

Thoughts - After some hotter than expected PPI inflation numbers it appears there may be a little more uncertainty with whether or not we get the 25bps rate cuts. Personally I think the market loves the limbo state it is in and if we can continue to keep tariffs paused and no rate cuts it can stay irrational longer than people expect. Starting of the rate cuts while mostly perceived as bullish can often become a sell the news event. We do have Jobless Claims that could also factor into that decision but this tends to not be as impactful unless the data is much worse or way better than expected.

These are stocks that I’m watching for upside potential with either good fundamentals or forming strong technical patterns.

Results from Week 1,2

$TGT Closed up 3.5%, high of 8%

$DRD Closed up 6.8%, high of 15%

$NGVC Closed up 3.7%, high of 16%

Thoughts (Sticking with these 3 for now, not adding any this week)

With FOMC volatility and stocks hitting an all time high will still be sticking with these plays for the week. As long as things don’t get too crazy I will most likely be looking for another play next week. There’s some interesting sectors that are warming up but I haven’t seen enough volume yet to feel confident in targeting them yet.

Longer term value play that saw a really nice bounce from the bottom of the channel. Ideally we’ll see this one eventually break out of this range and looking to see it get closer to $120 prices.

Plan to hold until at least dividends in September if not longer. We got a nice breakout and should hopefully see another big week in momentum.

We saw a really nice bounce from Issue 01 entry and still think this one has the legs for a $17.50 target. It might pull back a little before then so I’m not too worried if that’s the case before it goes back up.

Excited to bring on @CastilloTrading as this weeks featured guest. A long time follow and he does an amazing job trading without emotions and being patient. What I’ve really liked about his trading style is the way he uses nPOC levels (video will explain it below) to find established areas to buy and sell. He essentially trades like a spider waiting for trades to come to him and it’s why I highly recommend following him if you don’t already.

I’ve watched Castillo hit and execute many really good entries and exits using this strategy. More recently he was able to catch the Bitcoin and Ethereum lows using nothing more than this strategy explained below.

You can also find more resources for free at TradeWithCastillo.com

All charts were created using TradingView

Thanks to this weeks contributions by:

@IncomeSharks on X
@CastilloTrading on X

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