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None this week

The $ZEC craze continued this week seeing another big week for the altcoin. Even since mentioning it in the newsletter last week it went up another 65% reaching a high of $750. This triggered another wave of privacy alt coins and what are called “dino” coins. There was a bit of bullish chaos seeing long term coins that were bleeding or flat all year see triple digit pumps. Some big ones like $DASH $ICP and $FIL had sudden pumps. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw an early week correction but is working on trying to establish some support and showing momentum on a Sunday (past 5 times that action is retraced so the market is hoping this sustains).

Opinion: I think many are trying to determine if the chaos we saw this week will lead to a bullish November like we saw last year or it’s just a wild exit pump that has been fueled by the $ZEC (Zcash) rally. Regardless of the outcome those that were able to jump into coins showing momentum have been making sizable returns. It’s too early to tell if this is going to sustain and continue but if Bitcoin and Ethereum find a way to find support and the stock market continues there could be more optimism in the market.

Fear & Greed Index: 24 out of 100. One of the most fearful weeks since the April sell off. We saw it as low as 20. That might have been the lowest it will go and if that was the case it did get a lot of people to sell and become fearful. Historically it’s been proven that if you are buying during the most fearful times you will usually do better than being someone buying during euphoric times.

We saw a 11% correction since last week that saw a lot of panic. We got that target of downside to fill which was right below $100k. That was the main focus of the selling and an important level to target to test the strength of the markets. We are not out of the woods yet but this is now going to be a very good level to hold for support and it could lead to sellers actually being exhausted and a chance for bulls to push back. I don’t really have targets planned for more than that sell off so hopefully we can see it reclaim the level shown below (confirmation that that was it for the correction).

After failing many times at holding $4k we finally got the healthy correction that ripped it down below $3,200. Breaking most supports and even dipping below the major diagonal support. As fear and panic set in this actually now allows for sellers to get exhausted and give bulls a chance to push back up. $3,700 is now a really important level where if we can reclaim that then this can get treated as a correction in a bull market. Close below the $3,200 range again, break that new support, and then it feels like this is just another relief rally in a downtrend.

October did not live up to expectations but November has probably exceeded them for most so far. But it started off pretty rough for a lot with about 3 days of aggressive selling while only a few like $ZEC and $ICP found a way to rally. Once the market got ripe with blood and panic it was like a light switch for what happened next. This turned into a massive week for a lot of older established charts ranging from 50% moves in a day to triple digit gains in a week. The spill over has led to a lot of smaller market caps bouncing as well and there is optimism that this rally can lead to more but also skepticism that it’s more of a liquidity exit rally and that market makers and exchanges are behind it. This week will probably give clarity to which scenario is more likely.

It’s a shame the newsletter didn’t drop Wednesday as there was a whole lot of options to pick from. But if this is a sustained rally and volume and attention continues it’s worth at least grabbing some exposure to some altcoins. Will be keeping stops on these and play what is already showing strength and riding that momentum.

$UNI (new) - This is more of a purely TA play right now as it’s showing the same setup that a lot of other altcoins have shown. You could probably find a pretty decent list of others with the same setup. But with this one I like the OBV breakout, the downtrend breakout, and it doesn’t feel like it’s already moved too much. Treating this as a 2:1 risk to reward setup. 15% stop loss, with 30% upside. Hopefully by next week we’ll have more clarity of these conditions.

Some smaller more risky plays to keep an eye on are: $DUSK $ZK $SCRT

Closed Trades

$ROSE - Stopped out at 20%

$CRV - Stopped out at 23%

TRACKING WITH GURU

The higher risk microcaps saw another further dip. If the wind blows in the right direction and altcoins eventually trickle down to high risk microcaps this could change very quickly. Will probably wait until next week and see which one of these are worth cutting and possibly dust the cob webs off and see if we can find some more hot or active ones.

$COR, $BERRY, $PAPPLE, $PROOF and $GURU

First week in a while where we saw a lot more selling than buying. There was some bad October job data and then some effects of the government shutdown are starting to show. Historically though a week like this after the S&P 500 makes a new all time high isn’t that unusual and sure enough we saw about a 4% drop before momentum returned. Talks of a $2,000 tariff stimulus seems to be moving crypto and might have some positive effects on stock next week. The government resuming and opening back up might also help be a catalyst to see us go to the top of the channel.

Opinion: I think it’s a little too early to establish this as the top. October was a great month, November usually is still a good one too. We saw a little post November 5th “election” rally but overall down 4% on the week.

We have a US holiday on Tuesday (Veterans Day) but just the bond market will be closed. We have CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday but with the government shutdown we’ll see if they release. The market is looking for a catalyst like the government shutdown ending or to see how it reacts to weekend news of a possible $2,000 Tariff Stimulus check or 50 year home mortgages.

NEW Stock ($SABR) - See below

These are stocks that I’m trading. I will be sharing where I enter and where I close.

OPEN TRADES

$FLNC - Currently up 3.1%, high of 10%

$CROX - Currently down 1.75%, high of 7%

$SABR ( ▲ 0.69% ) - NEW

CLOSED TRADES

$CAN- Closed at 111%

$DRD - Closed at 62%

$ROOT - Closed at -4.5%

$NGVC - Closed at -6.1%

$TGT - Closed at -12%

Higher risk play but hoping their new AI investment and Hospitality sale helps with debt issues. Higher risk higher reward if they can get things moving and not a bad setup with 10% downside risk being the cut line. If this support holds there are still analysts giving it a $4 buy rating but I’m aiming for 50% upside at around $3 which fills the gap.

Even after the market had a big sell off it held on strong and still up. Still staying above the trendline and think if we can get a green week it will see a much bigger move.

$CROX ( ▲ 0.12% ) (Crocs) - Still holding. Red line is where I cut, target is where I sell.

Here’s a recap of the last 3 shows shows and guests for those that might have missed them:

Episode 2 with @NebraskanGooner

Episode 3 with @CastilloTrading

Episode 5 with @PepeMoonBoy

All charts were created using TradingView

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