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Announcements
None this week
Last Week in Crypto
BTC dropped to almost $80k
Bitcoin moved down 36% from its all time highs
Fear and sentiment dropped to single digits
Bitcoin outflows continued to pick up
Crypto stocks overall had a terrible week
Opinion: Once the momentum of breaking supports continues it can be a tough thing to stop. Each week fear seems to get worse even when prices are going lower which should offer more opportunity. We are seeing a bounce right now but it being a Sunday means it’s not something to celebrate yet especially when there has been no sign of holding a support or reclaiming previous levels that are lost. The most important thing right now is waiting for this to appear instead of trying to guess when and where it’ll happen.
Fear & Greed Index: 10 out of 100. The lowest fear we’ve seen all year, even worse than the April sell off. Those trading off of sentiment might start to get excited because historically this is where it’s been a much better place to buy.
Bitcoin
Another brutal double digit sell off week with lows of $80k almost getting touched. A little weekend relief bounce but nothing to get excited about until we see what the weekly price action does.
Dropped 15% and has since recovered a bit to be only down 8%
Bears are in in control and have to assume each bounce will not sustain (until we get confirmation)
PREDICTION: Hard to gauge when price is moving on a Sunday pump once again since this is when the newsletter comes out. But ignoring the low volume weekend pump we could see $90k touch this week before coming back down. I don’t think this starts a V reversal anytime soon but long term holders might like the 35% discount.
STATUS: BEARISH (Have kept missing a chance to call this bearish as each Sunday we’ve came to a support or a level where it feels too late to label it bearish. I think instead of saying how to play it I’m just going to identity the trend which right now is Bearish. This is not a signal to sell or buy or just what the trend is).
CHART: From last week we lost the support and found the lower one. The selling and sentiment doesn’t seem like it can’t get much worse so thinking we see something like this paly out below. Still think we break sub $80k but hopefully that’s short lived. It’s going to be much more difficult to get buyers to show up until we get structure or support established.
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Ethereum
Bears continue to find a way to break previous supports. We got to the next support level that was drawn last week. Over a 15% push down since last week and now it’s holding about 10% down from last Sunday.
Down 10% from last week
Another failed support but looking to make $2,600 a new support
PREDICTION: Looks like we might find a way to come back and re-test $3k but the bears are still in charge and there is no sign of a reversal or confirmation that a support is holding or going to hold.
STATUS: BEARISH (Changing how I classify this label but it’s going to now just be what trend we are in. Should have been classified much higher up.)
CHART: Drew some squiggles of an estimated “bottom” that we could put in even if it’s just a local bottom. I don’t think the conditions are setup for this to go vertical and create a V shape reversal that most would love to see.
Total Crypto Market Cap
Lost 250 billion in crypto this week
We lost the 3 trillion support but are now right about to that level
Still have lower supports that are in play
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Altcoins
Another bad week for alts as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Sol pushed lower causing another round of selling. There are still supports lower that could fill which mean we could see the entire altcoin marketcap get as low as 1 trillion. But at that point you would have to assume the risk to reward opportunity of buying might start to get really attractive.
TOTAL 2 (All crypto excluding Bitcoin)
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Altcoin Trade of the Week
No new trades this week. If we can hold this week it’ll give plenty of time to jump back into alts for next week.
Closed Trades
$UNI - Closed at 34%
$ROSE - Stopped out at -20%
$CRV - Stopped out at -23%
🚀 On-chain Projects to watch
TRACKING WITH GURU
Nothing new happening, another slow week but at least the silver lining is these are dropping much less than everything else. Price remains flat and slow and is really dependent on when and where Ethereum can push back up.
Current Watchlist 5
$COR, $BERRY, $PAPPLE, $PROOF and $GURU
This Week in Stocks
A lot of eyes were on $NVDA this week and they delivered big with earnings. Led to a huge market push overnight and in the morning that instantly got reversed and led to one of the larger sell off days all year. We saw unemployment numbers rise and saw fears of the fed no longer cutting rates in December (odds dropped to 20%). After that chaos towards the end of the week we saw a bounce on Friday as odds are back up to 70% of a fed rate cut. Market really trying to gain its footing again and although we broke the diagonal trend line the price is still holding up at a major horizontal support.
Opinion: It seems the fed rate cut decision is causing a lot of uncertainty where last week people were confident in it happening and this week with FOMC minutes people now worried it won’t. Only to see those fears get pushed back on Friday with job data. If we can just find a golden period where the rate cut happens or is expected too we might be alright especially if earnings are all mostly done. The only concern now is finding some sort of news that breaks horizontal support and causes a deeper sell off.
S&P 500
We got another red 3% candle similar to the one we saw on October 10th
Diagonal trendline broke (bullish uptrend) but still found a way to hold the horizontal support.
STATUS: BEARISH (Still are closed below the diagonal so the trend is still now until proven otherwise)
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What’s Happening Next Week
Shortened trading week with the markets closed on Thursday and shortened hours on Friday. We have Core PPI which is usually more important than what headline CPI is. Some other things like Consumer Confidence but mostly it’s the PPI inflation data that will be the most important. Right now the market is looking for anything that will give clarity on fed cutting rates in December.
Core PPI, Consumer Confidence - (Tuesday, November 25th)
Thanksgiving - Market Closed - (Thursday, November 27th)
Half day trading Friday - Market closes at 1pm EST (Friday, November 28th)
🔥 Stocks to trade
No new stocks this week
These are stocks that I’m trading. I will be sharing where I enter and where I close.
OPEN TRADES
$CROX - Currently up 1%, high of 7%
$FLNC - Currently down 21%, high of 10%
CLOSED TRADES
$SABR - Closed at -11%
$CAN- Closed at 111%
$DRD - Closed at 62%
$ROOT - Closed at -4.5%
$NGVC - Closed at -6.1%
$TGT - Closed at -12%
$SABR ( ▲ 0.69% ) (Sabre)
Got below the cut line so trade closed.
$FLNC ( ▲ 2.15% ) (Fluence Energy)
Earnings this week so will see if this can get some momentum going back into the chart. Was looking really strong before the markets started taking a turn.
$CROX ( ▲ 0.12% ) (Crocs) - Great bounce at support, still holding and actually nice to see it back in profit.
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🏆 DailyTradr Show
No episode this week
All charts were created using TradingView
The DailyTradr
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