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Opinion: This was a much needed week to have a relief bounce as both markets were looking pretty bad. Stocks finished the previous week with a nasty 3% drop so this week was pivotal for a recovery to save it from starting a major correction. Crypto was continuously losing supports so now we get to see if $80k will hold if re-tested or we still have more downside. It’s still early to celebrate for the bulls as a relief bounce was expected on Bitcoin regardless if bullish or bearish. So overall one step forward in the right direction but we now need to see continuation or follow through to avoid this failing as a dead cat bounce.

Following the squiggles from last week we got the expected push up to $90k range. I still think this isn’t a rally that just takes us to $100k without either re-testing this bounce or sweeping some lows. In my opinion it’s only a reversal if we can breakout out of that downtrend or reclaim and hold a previous failed support at either $92k or $100k.

Prediction: Still leaning towards more chop and a re-test lower but would be happy to see us reclaim and continue the trend up. I won’t be a buyer until lower and will remain being patient. It’s much easier to be in cash and jump into crypto when it gets confirmation than trying to guess where that will be.

Saw a nice recovery bounce and prices right around $3k. The OBV is the part that has me more bullish as it’s trying to work on a diagonal breakout but the price action of it being flat on a breakout doesn’t make me as confident as a vertical spike would be.

Prediction: I like this chart more than Bitcoin but it’s pretty clear it’s going to do whatever Bitcoin does or match it closely. We have some 20 day MA resistance and right about at the diagonal line for OBV. So it’s definitely a decision week where we can break out but I’m still leaning more to chop/correction even if the bottom is somewhat close.

Holding around that 3 trillion marketcap range. OBV a lot flatter and weaker and just like Bitcoin and Ethereum right at that moving average resistance. This will be the big test to see if bulls are confident enough to push here or if it’s been nothing more than an oversold bounce.

Another bad week for alts as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Sol pushed lower causing another round of selling. There are still supports lower that could fill which mean we could see the entire altcoin marketcap get as low as 1 trillion. But at that point you would have to assume the risk to reward opportunity of buying might start to get really attractive.

This week is a sit on hands in cash kind of week. If the move continues up there will be plenty of opportunity to jump in. The risk of it correcting right here doesn’t make it an ideal week to enter.

Closed Trades

$UNI - Closed at 34%

$ROSE - Stopped out at -20%

$CRV - Stopped out at -23%

TRACKING WITH GURU

Big week for $BERRY which is now up 100% in a week. Overall on chain is still waiting for the macro environment to become a risk on environment.

$COR, $BERRY, $PAPPLE, $PROOF and $GURU

A relatively slower week in stocks as the market prepares for the bigger week that looms with the Fed Rate cuts. We do have Powell speaking on Monday and some events like Initial Jobless Claims, US Trade Deficit, and Consumer Credit.

Adding more to $FLNC position. The guidance on earnings and a record 5.3 billion in back log orders with increasing net income and revenue going up quarter after quarter in a sector that is trending up (Energy/AI), makes me more confident in holding through 2026.

OPEN TRADES

$CROX - Currently up 4.8%, high of 7%

$FLNC - Currently down 3%, high of 18%

CLOSED TRADES

$SABR - Closed at -11%

$CAN- Closed at 111%

$DRD - Closed at 62%

$ROOT - Closed at -4.5%

$NGVC - Closed at -6.1%

$TGT - Closed at -12%

Earnings went well and guidance was really strong. OBV looks great and price reaction was very positive. Looking to hold long term.

$CROX ( ▲ 0.12% ) (Crocs) - Still up, still like the price action, still waiting to sell when the gap gets filled.

No episode this week

All charts were created using TradingView

The DailyTradr

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