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No announcements

Opinion on Markets: AI fears have bled out a lot of tech and software stocks as people are worried that these can be replaced. A lot of these stocks have been up for a long time so even without the news they were most likely to correct. Many were trading at very high future price to earning ratios so as the markets come down they are probably getting closer to what their true value is. Crypto was one of the first markets to fully retrace the April lows so while it was painful there’s an argument to be made it got through the worst already so there’s some optimism for a recovery if patient enough. People are trading the markets in a much less “risk on” mindset so it’s not going to be “make easy mode” for a while until markets decide on a further direction. Economic data coming out has been more positive than negative but these numbers can be lagging or later revised so they don’t always paint a complete picture.

Bloody start to the week saved by the end of the week. There’s still a lot of uncertainty and fear and a bottom might be close but I still see no reason to have to rush back in. Long term holders might start bidding these levels not caring about being exact but I still am fine waiting for a little more clarity or to be prepared to react to either more downside or more upside. Still in the mindset of reacting more than predicting in these less than ideal conditions.

Prediction: Most likely range in this new channel all week. Stocks are still dictating the moves, especially tech stocks so if there is some big news we could break the range but I think we have to spend more time chopping.

Ethereum has still found a way to survive going all the way to the April lows like Bitcoin did. This could be bullish if it finds a way to break out of the wedge but for now it still feels like a bearish pattern. Candle below the red line and we probably do sweep April lows at $1,400. Close above the green line and we could get to $2,400 to $2,600 as a mean revision play.

Prediction: Could find a way to range and complete the pennant pattern and not make a decision until next week. Have to lean slightly more to the downside because of where the April lows are but happy to see us breakout before the next newsletter. Not really actionable trades in crypto right now without added risk.

Forming a pattern here with a chance of upside but then even at a breakout towards 2.6 trillion we have that supertrend resistance line that was strong resistance before. Have the red and green lines on the chart where I think will give more clarity in a week.

Emerging Markets/Global Markets (NEW) - The global markets have been doing well and continue to outperform. A big reason is the fear of a weaker US dollar and the aggressive dumping of US treasuries by BRICS. A lot of the global gold supply was purchase (over 50%) recently by these countries with the goal of independence of the US dollar and it seems like having exposure in emerging markets might be good until we see the US snap back.

Consumer Staples - One of the strongest sectors right now whether it’s consumer staples or value consumer retail/staple plays.

Energy - Still showing strength and these are outperforming the other S&P 500 stocks

Nuclear - Still a good sector but with the markets in derisk mode it’s taking a bit of a pause

Rare Earth Minerals - Taking a bit of a correction and slowing down as a hot sector but still looks promising.

Precious Metals & Mining: Still seems to be struggling to restart the momentum they had

No new trades this week. Better to wait for market conditions to improve than force trades during chop.

$CHZ - Had a nice 38% run before the markets puked and can still be patient on this one waiting for a recovery/rally. Also can cut and sit on hands if not willing to wait.

Closed Trades

$XRP - Stopped at -12%

$UNI - Closed at 34%

$ROSE - Stopped out at -20%

$CRV - Stopped out at -23%

TRACKING WITH GURU

First week in a while $BERRY wasn’t the top performer. This week goes to $PAPPLE with the past 7 days up 42%.

$COR, $BERRY, $PAPPLE, $PROOF and $GURU

Markets closed Monday for Presidents day. We have Fed minutes being released on Wednesday that might give a little more information on rate cuts in the future. It’s usually not too big of an event and it seems most of the information naturally comes out anyways. The big event is probably Friday (seems Fridays are turning into big days again) and it’s going to be GDP which is expected to be 2.5% from 4.4%. A higher number would be a good sign and a reason for markets to go up.

No new stocks this week. Still like holding consumer staples $CLX and $TGT with some exposure to rare earth metals long term ($USAR).

OPEN TRADES

$TGT - Currently up 18.44%, high of 19%

$CLX - Currently up 5.3%, high of 6%

$USAR - Currently down 34%, high of 8%

Good week up 5.5% with a clear trend in consumer staples and value stock plays.

Still think this one will turn out ok, just might take a few more months than expected with the timing of the markets becoming uncertain.

Heading right towards that first big gap (blue box). Up 18% and outperforming a lot in the S&P 500.

CLOSED TRADES

$FLNC - Closed at 65%

$FLNC - Closed at 85%

$ROOT - Closed at -4.5%

$CROX - Closed at 6%

$SABR - Closed at -11%

$CAN - Closed at 111%

$DRD - Closed at 62%

$NGVC - Closed at -6.1%

$TGT - Closed at -12%

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