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No announcements

Opinion on Markets: Every midterm year it feels like things are going to be different and it was looking that way for a while. Even with a strong start to January it felt like maybe just maybe it was going to play out different. A few months later we get a terrible March and suddenly the sell off and bearish catalysts start showing up. A lot of uncertainty and now it’s about surviving the markets. The good news? 100% of these midterm crashes have later recovered so if you can be patient on entries, hold ones you believe will come back, and properly hedge or hold cash you should eventually be reminded why trading is fun. Right now the markets are doing a lot of humbling after the 2 to 3 years of easier gains for stocks and even crypto until October hit.

Pretty frustrating price action having a bullish flip all but retrace that quickly as the stock market seems to be following what Bitcoin already did. The silver lining is somehow that Bitcoin supertrend is still holding as support but my confidence in the squiggles are getting lower but would be wild to see it still hold through the midterm chaos.

If it we can see SuperTrend hold this support by the next newsletter there is hope. Without that though we probably still find a way to sleep April lows like Bitcoin did.

Looks bad but could look worse. Kind of what was expected with the squiggles from last newsletter.

Energy - $XLE on it’s 14th straight week and about the only thing showing strength. In hindsight playing energy in a Midterm year might just have to become the play

$FET - Saw a 30% rally that’s retraced but still up 13% which is a win in these conditions. Will see how Monday goes but doesn’t hurt to lock in profits here or sell some and see if there’s more left in the tank. Overall it’s showing a lot more strength than other crypto.

$CHZ - Actually on a nice little rally cutting the losses back to only 18% from being down much more

Closed Trades

$XRP - Stopped at -12%

$UNI - Closed at 34%

$ROSE - Stopped out at -20%

$CRV - Stopped out at -23%

TRACKING WITH GURU

Bad week for on chain after $ETH was showing a little hope that retraced.

$COR, $BERRY, $PAPPLE, $PROOF and $GURU

Not a massive week but a lot of job data and manufacturing numbers. Unemployment rate is expected to rise again from 4.4% to 4.5%. A larger increase than that would probably put more panic in the markets.

No new trades this week

OPEN TRADES

$USAR - Currently down 34%, high of 8%

Long term hold so not too worried even with more downside. The big thing will be looking for numbers with the upcoming earnings which even in bad conditions could offer a substantial catalyst.

CLOSED TRADES

Win Rate: 66.67%
Average R:R: 5.1:1
Average Win Size: 48%
Average Loss Size: 8.4%

$CAG - Closed at -8%

$TGT - Closed the rest at 16%

$CLX- Closed at 19%

$TGT- Closed half at 19%

$FLNC - Closed at 65%

$FLNC - Closed at 85%

$ROOT - Closed at -4.5%

$CROX - Closed at 6%

$SABR - Closed at -11%

$CAN - Closed at 111%

$DRD - Closed at 62%

$NGVC - Closed at -6.1%

$TGT - Closed at -12%

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