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Announcements
New style of newsletter coming next week! The idea to focus on one stock, project, asset or market and do a deep dive each week to offer actionable long term trades
Last Week in Crypto
Crypto held up relatively strong compared to equities which saw a lot more volatility
Fear and Greed index held around the high teens and lows 20s all week
Clarity on some crypto coins where as many as 16 were declared commodities
Ethereum continued to show large amounts being staked
Last Week in Stocks
Stocks feel handcuffed by Oil volatility and headlines making trading much more difficult during an already difficult trading period
Early stock market weakness led to a much needed relief rally which has yet to see or show it has follow through power yet
Energy and material stocks outperformed on the oil spikes but for the first time in 14 weeks we saw energy close red instead of green
Unemployment and job data actually some good news among everything going on but there’s still concerns about future job revisions
Unemployment showed a decrease from 4.4% to 4.3% instead of the expected 4.5%
Space X filed for an IPO
Opinion on Markets: There’s a lot going on and lot of different directions we could see the markets. A painful but predictable scenario is seeing a 2022 midterm style year play out. A lot more similarities than people may want to admit from high gas prices, headlines, geopolitical headlines, to how stocks are correcting. Still think the most important thing to do in these positions is either work on capital protection, going to cash, or staying fluid/active with trading so that you have money ready to deploy when conditions improve. A bear market brings opportunity, if this was a dip and we recover, more opportunity comes as well.
Bitcoin
It was getting awfully close to breaking that SuperTrend support and with the wild week we have it’s pretty impressive that it found a way to not only hold on but get a nice push up. The squiggles are still in play.
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Ethereum
Same thing, held support when it wasn’t looking like it would but probably still got some more chop coming.
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Total Crypto Market Cap
The short term squiggles still playing out. Will see if we get any more actionable data this upcoming week.
🔥 What’s hot this week
Energy - For the first time in 14 weeks we got a red week and the daily supertrend flipped bearish. Will be interesting to see what kind of reaction we get with OIL this week though.
Crypto to watch
$FET - Closing for 20% since I’ll be changing up the format for the newsletter. Especially in these conditions any sort of profit is a win.
$CHZ - Will still keep holding this one long term, see if we can’t get a rally at some point before the summer.
Closed Trades
$FET - Closed at 20%
$XRP - Stopped at -12%
$UNI - Closed at 34%
$ROSE - Stopped out at -20%
$CRV - Stopped out at -23%
On-chain Projects
TRACKING WITH GURU
At some point this year we should $ETH cross back above $3k and On Chain get a rally. There’s been some promising signs even among all the pain but the teams that continue to push out updates and survive all the downside will hopefully be able to come back. These can feel dead for so long until they run had for a month
Current Watchlist 5
$COR, $BERRY, $PAPPLE, $PROOF and $GURU
This Week in Stocks
A pleasant surprise on job data last week that was overshadowed by oil. Now to add more things on top of everything going on we have two important inflation reports coming, CPI and PCE. Then we get a little look into FOMC minutes to see if there’s any change or more insight onto possible future rate cuts.
Minutes of Fed's May FOMC meeting (Wednesday, April 8th)
PCE Inflation (Thursday, April 9th)
CPI Inflation (Friday, April 10th)
🔥 Stocks to watch
No new trades this week
OPEN TRADES
$USAR - Currently down 34%, high of 8%
$USAR ( ▲ 7.57% ) (US Rare Earth)
Long term hold. Looking for end of 2026 or 2027 for 2x and best case 4x by 2028.
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CLOSED TRADES
Win Rate: 66.67%
Average R:R: 5.1:1
Average Win Size: 48%
Average Loss Size: 8.4%
$CAG - Closed at -8%
$TGT - Closed the rest at 16%
$CLX- Closed at 19%
$TGT- Closed half at 19%
$FLNC - Closed at 65%
$FLNC - Closed at 85%
$ROOT - Closed at -4.5%
$CROX - Closed at 6%
$SABR - Closed at -11%
$CAN - Closed at 111%
$DRD - Closed at 62%
$NGVC - Closed at -6.1%
$TGT - Closed at -12%
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